In a move raising concerns across Europe, Russia is reportedly intending to double the number of troops stationed along its border with the Baltic states and Finland. According to Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, this military buildup is seen as a preparation for a potential conflict with NATO within the next decade. Kaupo Rosin, the director-general of the Estonian service, emphasized that Russia is not currently willing to conduct military actions towards NATO. Still, their analysis indicates that Russia is calculating the possibility of a military conflict with NATO in the coming years.
The intelligence report suggests that Russian military reforms, gradually unveiled since late 2022, point to a substantial increase in troops on NATO’s eastern flank. Rosin stated that the Russians are planning to increase the military force along the Baltic states’ border and the Finnish border. This increase may involve a doubling of manpower, along with additional armed personnel carriers, tanks, and artillery systems over the coming years.
The report highlights that the number of troops Russia has stationed on its border with Estonia may nearly double from the 19,000 present before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, along the 1,340km-long border with new NATO member Finland, a new army corps is expected, consisting of two or three maneuver units with around a dozen fire support and combat support units.
Similar military build-ups along the Russian border with Ukraine were observed before the invasion in February 2022. Troels Lund Poulsen, Denmark’s defense minister, recently warned of the possibility of a Russian attack within three to five years. He mentioned that new information had come to light, unknown to NATO countries.
Rosin urged NATO allies to deter Russia by increasing their military spending. Estonia plans to spend more than 3% of GDP this year on defense, surpassing NATO’s 2% target. Larger European countries, including France and Germany, still struggle to meet this target.
Commenting on Donald Trump’s recent statement that Russia could do “whatever the hell they want” with NATO countries failing to meet the 2% target, Rosin stated that such statements are never helpful. However, he believes that the Russians are likely paranoid enough to consider not just the words but also the actions of NATO.
While European countries face challenges in increasing defense spending and weapons production for Ukraine, Russia’s war budget for 2024 is a staggering Rbs14.3tn, equivalent to 6% of GDP. Russian arms factories are working around the clock, and supplies from Iran and North Korea have allowed Putin’s army to outgun Ukraine.
The Estonian intelligence report highlights that Russia produced 3.5 million units of ammunition last year, surpassing Ukraine’s production and western supplies. This figure is expected to rise to 4.5 million in 2024, widening the gap between Russian and Ukrainian forces. However, Russia has sustained heavy equipment losses, including over 2,600 tanks, 5,100 armored personnel carriers, and 600 self-propelled artillery units as of last month.
In response to western sanctions limiting Moscow’s access to machine tools, production lines, and factory equipment, Putin has reportedly ordered the modernizing of armored vehicles retrieved from storage and actively pursued alternative supplies, particularly from China and Hong Kong. The evolving situation in Eastern Europe continues to draw international attention and concern.
